[ Faculté de Droit et de Science Politique, Université Paul Cézanne, 3 avenue Robert Schuman ]

01h30 pm : Opening of the Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum

Welcoming Words by Jean-Hervé LORENZI (Président du Cercle des économistes)
The New Global Challenges: Robert W. FOGEL (Nobel Prize in Economics)

followed by a debate between

• Hervé LE BRAS (EHESS-INED)
• Franck RIBOUD (Danone)
• Hubert VÉDRINE (former French Minister of Foreign Affairs)

Moderator : Nicolas BEYTOUT (Les Échos)

02h30 - 03h45 pm - Session 1 - Economic Breakdowns

The first objective of this session is to assess ongoing global economic breakdowns, the financial crisis and its disastrous impacts of course, but also the dramatic demographic consequences of the lengthening of life expectancy which is occuring asynchronously in the various parts of the world. It has become crucial to study the main macroeconomic implications of these breakdowns in terms of actual and potential economic growth, employment, consumption, investments, savings, banking and financial systems, social expenditures at large, entrepreneurship (individual and collective attitudes toward risks, R&D, innovation), the competitiveness of firms and countries, and regional and national attractiveness. What kind of balance is to be expected in terms of wealth distribution (what wealth?) in the world and within each region of the world? Should these questions also bear on intergenerational wealth distribution?

Introduction : Takatoshi ITO (Tokyo University)

Speakers :

• Martin BALEPA (Afristat - Observatoire économique et statistique d’Afrique Subsaharienne)
• Didier BLANCHET (Département des Études Économiques d’Ensemble, Insee)
• CAI FANG (Institute of Population and Labor Economics CASS)
• Pierre GADONNEIX (EDF)
• Mouloud HAMROUCHE (former Prime Minister of Algeria)
• Gérard MESTRALLET (GDF SUEZ)

Coordination :  Christian de BOISSIEU (Cercle des économistes)
Moderator : Nicolas PIERRON (Radio Classique).

03h45 - 05h00 pm - Session 2 - Human Capital and the Adjustment of Firms

In the wake of the economic crisis a lot of companies are going to have to restructure themselves. To a large extent their competitiveness will depend on the management of their workforce age pyramid. Aging, as observed notably in Europe, has led to important changes among the working population in terms of median age, productivity and hence labour costs. At the same time, companies are going to have to re-examine the issue of their international development. In order to ensure growth, companies originally turned towards more dynamic zones demographically speaking. But now these zones, too, have been severely affected by the crisis. Now the question is whether former choices will have to be reconsidered or reinforced. These new challenges bear on the management of human resources, competitiveness, international strategies and the adjustment of produced goods.

Introduction : Axel BÖRSCH-SUPAN (Institute of Economics and Statistics, University of Mannheim)

Speakers :

• Léo APOTHEKER (SAP)
• Anne LAUVERGEON (Areva)
• Christophe de MARGERIE (Total)
• Suresh D. TENDULKAR (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India)

Coordination : Lionel FONTAGNE (Cercle des économistes)

[ Institut d’Études Politiques - amphi La Chapelle - 25 rue Gaston de Saporta ]

8h30 - 9h00 am : The Evolution of Global Economy

Speakers : Rodrigo RATO (Lazard), Jean-Marie CHEVALIER (Cercle des économistes)

Moderator : Olivier JAY (Le Journal du Dimanche)

Institut d’Études Politiques, amphi "La Chapelle"
25 rue Gaston de Saporta

9h00 - 10h15 am - Session 3
Health, Pensions and Welfare in Time of Crisis

Demographic evolutions aggravated by the crisis heavily modify all the existing social protection systems. The baby-boom generation reaching retirement age and the increase in life expectancy both upset the active/non active population ratios and require in-depth reforms of pension systems. The stock exchange crisis penalizes funded retirement schemes and to a large extent levies stock invested savings. As health expenditures increase the efficiency of their management is becoming a major concern. Dependence will amplify while family support is becoming more difficult to organize. Beyond risk-related issues, transverse questions arise:

– Who is going to take care of young children, of dependant elders, of the handicapped and of the sick?
– Will the development of person-to-person and collective services solve all the problems?
– Which reforms are likely to limit the increase of public expenditure in times of high national debt?
– How can one arbitrate between collective guarantees, professional solidarities, family and individual protection?
– How can individual freedom of choice be secured while avoiding excessive inequalities?

Introduction : Jacob HACKER (Berkeley)

Speakers :

• Gilles BENOIST (CNP Assurances)
• Mazen S. DARWAZAH (Hikma Pharmaceutical)
• Tatsuo HATTA (GRIPS)
• Christian LAJOUX (Leem)
• Ole SETTERGREN (The Swedish National Social Insurance Board)
• Rose-Marie Van LERBERGHE (Korian)

Coordination : Jean-Michel CHARPIN with the contribution of Philippe TRAINAR (Cercle des économistes)

Hôtel Maynier d'Oppède - amphi "Zyromski"
25 rue Gaston de Saporta

9h00 - 10h15 am - Session 4
The Intergenerational Conflict

What kind of upheavals in intergenerational relations should we expect in the next twenty to thirty years? There is no doubt that the current crisis will have a strong impact on intergenerational transfers:

– On ascending transfers: the growing weight of retirement schemes on the income of active workers, predictable explosion of dependency costs… these changes seemed to be anticipated thanks to massive savings by retired people with a view to coping with increased expenses over a longer period of time. Now, will the drop in financial assets threaten the fragile balance between generations?
– What will be the impact of the financial crisis on descending transfers? Will it jeopardize inter vivos patrimonial transfers?
– Reflection will bear mostly on global savings flows. Intergenerational savings transfers should logically lead to the funding of young –and poor–countries by aging –and rich– countries. Savings flows would thus converge towards more dynamic zones, support their technological adjustment while yielding a higher return for aging nations. These predictions were hardly borne out before the crisis. What is to be expected in the years to come? Will imbalances be amended or will they be increased? More generally will financial flows between countries reflect their respective demographic structures?

Introduction : Laurence J. KOTLIKOFF (Boston University)

Speakers :

• Bruno ANGLES (Macquarie)
• Philippe-Henri DACOURY-TABLEY (Central Bank of West African States)
• Jacques-Henri DAVID (Deutsche Bank)
• Denis KESSLER (SCOR)
• Eric LOMBARD (BNP Paribas Assurance)
• André MASSON (Département et Laboratoire d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée, CNRS, ENS, EHESS)
• Luca SILIPO (Università di Roma)
• David WISE (Harvard-NBER)

Coordination : Bertrand JACQUILLAT with the contribution of Christian STOFFAËS (Cercle des économistes)

Housing has triggered the current crisis. Conversely, the crisis may contribute to significant changes in city planning. At the same time, the aging of the population leads to the rethinking of the spatial organization of economic activities and to the resulting adaptation of urban planning.

Cities suited to an aging population are not just spaces laid out for persons with reduced mobility. What will be the impact of both the crisis and an aging population on real estate prices? Can one imagine putting different social classes and generations together?

Introduction : Roberto CAMAGNI (Politecnico di Milano)

Speakers :

• Jean-Paul BAILLY (La Poste)
• Antoine GRUMBACH (Architect, Urban Planner)
• Bruno LAFONT (Lafarge)
• Michel DESTOT (Mayor of Grenoble)
• Philippe MELLIER (Alstom transport)
• Guillaume PÉPY (SNCF)

Coordination : Christian SAINT-ÉTIENNE (Cercle des économistes)

10h30 - 12h00 am - Session 6
Age Consideration and the Employment Crisis

The most optimistic forecasts predict a 2% increase in unemployment even given the present low rates of employment particularly in the case of senior workers of the workforce. In OECD countries, the employment rates of seniors (60-64) are highly variable (13% in Hungary; 85% in Iceland, 15% in France). The advantages of employing seniors include high levels of expertise in specific areas, their knowledge of the working environment, professional conscientiousness and low training costs. On the other hand, they may be less mobile, less adaptable to change and new technologies, and subject to greater health problems (limiting their skills). seniors’ efficiency is limited by a lesser degree of mobility, reduced adaptability to change and new technologies, and health problems (limited work capabilities). A slightly lower –age-related– productivity can be observed, which may be partly attributable to a noticeably diminished capacity for training.

Introduction : Martin HIRSCH (High Commissioner for active solidarity against poverty, High Commissionner for Youth)

Speakers :

• Mohamed CHAFIKI (Ministry of Economy and Finance, Kingdom of Morocco)
• François DAVY (Adecco)
• Loraine DONNEDIEU de VABRES (JeantetAssociés)
• Martine DURAND (OCDE)
• Eric LABAYE (McKinsey)
• Philippe LEMOINE (LaSer)
• Jean-Pierre WIEDMER (HSBC Assurances)

Coordination : Pierre CAHUC (Cercle des économistes) with the contributions of Jean-Dominique LAFAY and Daniel VITRY (Cercle des économistes)

Moderator : Christian MENANTEAU (RTL)

02:45 - 03:30 pm - Debate
Jacques ATTALI (PlaNet Finance) and Patrick ARTUS (Cercle des économistes)

Institut d’Études Politiques - Amphi "La Chapelle"

03h45 - 05h15 pm - Session 7
Old Versus Young Countries

Policies concerning age are still in their infancy. The left-wing/right-wing divide remains centred on intra-generational equity. However, the issue of intergenerational distribution also reflects the distribution of wealth between countries, an issue emphasized by the current crisis. No new “sustainable” growth can be contemplated without an in-depth reassessment of long-term environmental stakes and risks. The issue is creating a growing divide between old and young countries. Beyond the North/South issue, an intergenerational arbitration is becoming crucial.

Introduction : Erik ORSENNA (Académie française)

Speakers :

• Hassan ABOUYOUB (Ambassador of Marocco)
• Brahim BENJELLOUN (BMCE)
• Sidi Mohamed Ould BOUBACAR (Former Prime Minister of Mauritania)
• Renato FRAGELLI CARDOSO (Getulio Vargas Foundation)
• Dr Rajiv KUMAR (Indian Council for Research of International Economic Relations)
• Helmut REISEN (OCDE)
• Lionel ZINSOU (PAI Partners)

Coordination : Jean PISANI-FERRY with the contributions of Françoise BENHAMOU (Cercle des économistes)

Institut d’Études Politiques - Amphi "Cassin"

03h45 - 05h15 pm - Session 8
The Demography of Firms in the Light of the Crisis

The current crisis is accelerating the process of how companies renew their workforce. We already know that an aging population will have two major effects on the social fabric: a large number of middle-sized companies will have to be passed down while fewer new firms will be created. In these conditions, how will we be able to ensure the renewal of a social fabric guaranteeing a high level of employment and growth? Moreover, in these conditions, how can we face the risks of economic, social and territorial divisions that the crisis is bringing in its wake?

Introduction : Thomas PHILIPPON (Stern School of Business)

Speakers :

• Frank DANGEARD (Atari)
• Mohamed HORANI (CGEM)
• Pierre LASRY (LowendalMasaï)
• Pierre RAOUL-DUVAL (Gide Loyrette Nouel)
• Thibault de SAINT PRIEST (Acofi)
• Patrick SAYER (Eurazeo)
• Michel TILMANT (ING)
• Rémy WEBER (Lyonnaise de Banque)

Coordination : Jean-Paul BETBÈZE (Cercle des économistes)

Moderator : Emmanuel CUGNY (Radio Classique)

Institut d’Études Politiques - Amphi "La Chapelle"

05h15 - 06h30 pm - Session 9
Crisis and Migrations

What are the consequences of the economic and financial crisis on national, regional and international migrations? Are they likely to bring partial and short-term solutions to current imbalances? Do they address South unemployment and North workforce needs? How can developing countries react to the significant decrease of migrants’ money transfers, which are an important source of funding for their development?

Introduction : Pascal KOUPAKI (Minister of Development of Republica of Benin)

Speakers :

• Frédéric DOCQUIER (IRES, Louvain)
• Ahmed LAHLIMI ALAMI (High Commissioner for planning, Morocco)
• Philippe LIORET (Director of the movie “Welcome”)
• Jean-Louis REIFFERS (Institut de la Méditerranée)
• Yazid SABEG (Commissioner for Diversity and Equal Opportunities)
• Maurice SCHIFF (World Bank)
• Hania ZLOTNIK (United Nations)

Coordination : Pierre JACQUET (Cercle des économistes), with the contribution of Alain TRANNOY (Cercle des économistes)

Institut d’Études Politiques - Amphi "Cassin"

05h15 - 06h30 pm - Session 10
Product Innovation for a New Growth

Plans to stimulate economies tend to emphasise investment in infrastructures. However, in order for recovery to take place, the key is innovation. It can be used in organising production, allocating resources and in changing consumer habits. We should also be asking what technological breakthroughs would be welcome, which innovations to subscribe to, and whether or not our age pyramid will prove a hindrance to such changes.

Introduction :Philippe AGHION (Harvard)

Speakers :

• Olivier BRANDICOURT (Pfizer)
• Emmanuel COSTE (Qualis)
• Dominique D’HINNIN (Club des Trente)
• Tayeb KAMALI (Higher Colleges of Technologies – United Arab Emirates)
• Eric Le BOULCH (CM CIC Securities)
• Jean-Bernard LEVY (Vivendi)
• Mostafa TERRAB (Office Chérifien des Phosphates)
• Georges TERRIER (Davis Polk Wardwell)

Coordination : Dominique ROUX, with the contribution of Anne PERROT (Cercle des économistes)

[ Faculté de Droit et de Science Politique, Université Paul Cézanne, 3 avenue Robert Schuman ]

8h30 - 9h15 am - Is the End of the Crisis in Sight?

Christine LAGARDE (French Minister of Economy, Industry and Employment), Haruhiko KURODA (Asian Development Bank)

Coordination : Jean-Marie CHEVALIER (Cercle des économistes)

Moderator: Peggy HOLLINGER (Financial Times)

9h15 - 11h30 am - Session 11 a/b

G20 faces the difficult task of coordinating efforts to mitigate the impact of the current crisis, while at the same time it must work to reform the international financial system and limit the risk of a new crisis in the decades to come. For the first time, emerging countries, amongst which the biggest savers of the world have been called in to take part in the discussions. But aren’t the poorest countries also at risk since they bear the brunt of the consequences of the global crisis, threatened by the drying up of capital flows, aggravated by the uncertainties of public help and migrants’ remittances? Beyond the crisis, what is crucially at stake is the reform of the financial system that allows capitals to flow freely between economically advanced and/or aging economies towards developing and/or young ones, and also from South to South countries.

Session 11 a - The Redeployment of Global Financial Flows

This session will focus on the macroeconomic dimension of financial markets organisation in emerging economies, of associated exchange regime and of legacy strategies in economies that are rich in energy or raw materials. The session will also reassess the role of macroeconomic factors (monetary policies, exchange regimes) in the crisis outbreak. It will address savings strategies of emerging economies in the light of population aging, of the progressive drying up of natural resources and of the necessity of protection against balance of payment crises. The ways of channelling savings towards the most productive investments worldwide will be discussed. Finally, the respective roles of local versus global finance in the catching up of poor countries will be debated.

Introduction : Robert REICH (Berkeley)

Speakers :

• Rasheed AL-MARAJ (Central Bank of Bahrein)
• Dominic BARTON (McKinsey)
• Pierre-André de CHALENDAR (Saint-Gobain)
• Christian NOYER (Banque de France)
• YU YONGDING (Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Coordination : Agnès BÉNASSY-QUÉRÉ with the contribution of Laurence BOONE and Anton BRENDER (Cercle des économistes)

Session 11 b - The New Global Financial Regulation

How then should global finance be supervised and governed? What new rules would best enable us to redirect the flow of financial resources? Apart from admitting a few developing countries into the FSF and the Basle Committee, and apart from reform of the IMF, do we need new rules to govern international investment? Does a World Finance Organisation need to be created?

Introduction : Laura TYSON ( Berkeley, Haas School of Business)

Speakers :

• Michel CICUREL (Compagnie Financière Edmond de Rothschild Banque)
• Takeo HOSHI (University of California San Diego)
• Jean-Pierre JOUYET (AMF)
• Augustin de ROMANET (Caisse des Dépôts)
• Jean-François THÉODORE (NYSE Euronext)
• Serge VILLEPELET (PricewaterhouseCoopers)

Coordination : Benoît CŒURÉ with the contribution of Catherine LUBOCHINSKY, André CARTAPANIS, Jean-Paul POLLIN and Jean-Charles ROCHET (Cercle des économistes)

11h45 - 13h00 am - Session 12 - New Global Balances

The World crisis is disrupting all the existing hierarchies. Although demography is a fairly predictable domain, which populations are doomed to migrate? Which industries are best adapted to demographic transition? Which firms are best prepared to face future challenges?

Speakers :

• Donald KABERUKA (African Development Bank)
• Pascal LAMY (WTO)
• Didier LOMBARD (Orange)
• Mario MONTI (Università Bocconi)
• Jean-Claude TRICHET (ECB)

Coordination : Olivier PASTRÉ with the contribution of Jacques MISTRAL (Cercle des économistes)